As Economy Collapses, Housing Suddenly Abundant
The Harbor Lights development in the Powerhouse Arts District is trying to attract buyers by offering loans directly from the developer to help cover the costs of closing and acquiring a mortgage. Dixon Mills, the rental to condo conversion is hosting a restaurant tasting just to attract prospective buyers to the property.
As the market sours, Jersey City's condominium boom has turned to a glut. Some recently completed towers are half dark at night while construction on other sites like Liberty Harbor North crawls along.
Large rental towers are feeling a hit too. Newport for instance, began heavily advertising online and in subway cars this summer, something the mostly rental complex has avoided. Anecdotal evidence suggests too that Metropolis Towers, another large downtown complex known for traditionally more affordable rents has vacancies rather than waiting lists.
Last year Grove Pointe and 50 Columbus, two of the newest rental towers downtown opened to great fanfare and reports that both towers quickly filled with eager renters providing hope that the downtown market was still solid. It seems a lot has changed in six months as the economy worsens.
The rental market in Jersey City is probably feeling multiple effects. Manhattan rents have actually declined year over year, meaning the handful of renters who still have jobs are moving up. Also, Jersey City's waterfront workforce is largely dependent on financial firms; many of these workers live in the downtown as well. As the financial employees face uncertain futures, Jersey City is getting hit twice, in the office and the residential markets.
Finally, Jersey City has in recent years become a stop over for recent college graduates priced out of Manhattan or trendier Brooklyn neighborhoods. But without new jobs for recent graduates, many of these potential new residents are probably choosing to make their parents their new landlords.
Small time landlords are beginning to notice that properties that once could easily be rented above the previous year's leasing price are sitting vacant. Still though, many smaller new construction and rehabilitation projects continue moving forward. Renovations on brownstones throughout the historic neighborhoods continue to progress. New construction on Newark Avenue continues-- a crane was recently erected for 215 Newark Avenue, a six story project.
For now, housing has suddenly become a surplus, after years of market driven shortages. Eventually though, the economy will rebound, and the demand for housing will return; the post economic apocalypse surge in demand will certainly drive recently deflated prices above their highs-- and beyond.
As the market sours, Jersey City's condominium boom has turned to a glut. Some recently completed towers are half dark at night while construction on other sites like Liberty Harbor North crawls along.
Large rental towers are feeling a hit too. Newport for instance, began heavily advertising online and in subway cars this summer, something the mostly rental complex has avoided. Anecdotal evidence suggests too that Metropolis Towers, another large downtown complex known for traditionally more affordable rents has vacancies rather than waiting lists.
Last year Grove Pointe and 50 Columbus, two of the newest rental towers downtown opened to great fanfare and reports that both towers quickly filled with eager renters providing hope that the downtown market was still solid. It seems a lot has changed in six months as the economy worsens.
The rental market in Jersey City is probably feeling multiple effects. Manhattan rents have actually declined year over year, meaning the handful of renters who still have jobs are moving up. Also, Jersey City's waterfront workforce is largely dependent on financial firms; many of these workers live in the downtown as well. As the financial employees face uncertain futures, Jersey City is getting hit twice, in the office and the residential markets.
Finally, Jersey City has in recent years become a stop over for recent college graduates priced out of Manhattan or trendier Brooklyn neighborhoods. But without new jobs for recent graduates, many of these potential new residents are probably choosing to make their parents their new landlords.
Small time landlords are beginning to notice that properties that once could easily be rented above the previous year's leasing price are sitting vacant. Still though, many smaller new construction and rehabilitation projects continue moving forward. Renovations on brownstones throughout the historic neighborhoods continue to progress. New construction on Newark Avenue continues-- a crane was recently erected for 215 Newark Avenue, a six story project.
For now, housing has suddenly become a surplus, after years of market driven shortages. Eventually though, the economy will rebound, and the demand for housing will return; the post economic apocalypse surge in demand will certainly drive recently deflated prices above their highs-- and beyond.
Labels: Jersey City
4 Comments:
"housing has suddenly become a surplus, after years of market driven shortages. Eventually though, the economy will rebound, and the demand for housing will return."
that's what usually happens.
this time, though, i am not so sure...
Wow - good thing Toll Brothers (TOOL Bros?) eviscerated the Powerhouse Arts District in pursuit of the easy-sleazy money that was such a sure thing in the condo market up until recently. Hmm...what does the Jersey City real-estate market need?: three more highrise condo towers, of course! Too bad Provost Square will never be built - at least not according to the plans fought so hard for that it required the destruction of a beneficial Arts District plan in order to get approval to MAKE THE TOWER HIGHER! You know what HELPS Jersey City in an economic downturn? Arts, culture, artists who have been instrumental in the blossoming of neighborhoods all over the NYC-Metro area. Do you know what DOES NOT HELP Jersey City in an economic downturn? TOO MUCH HOUSING, driving down costs, lowering per-capita investment, driving up crime, etc. OH WELL.
I think given the history of recent events, my comment from January 2008 speaks for itself:
http://www.newyorkssixth.com/2008/01/toll-brothers-powerhouse-arts-district.html
Citizen of the PAD said...
I think this is a tragedy. I live in the PAD, and the Toll Bros plan will uproot what I considered to be one of the most beautiful, forward-thinking places to live in Jersey City. They will be destroying not only the historic Manischewitz factory which had a connection to millions of Jewish Americans, but they will also be destroying (literally, building over and erasing) a 100-year old cobblestone street...just to build another generic-looking Toll Bros behemoth like those blighting the outskirts of Hoboken. The failure of this decision by Jersey City is the fundamental failure to recognize intrinsic value -- these historic landmarks, the artistic and aesthetic contribution the PAD can, does and would make to Jersey City in a cultural sense has more intrinsic value for Jersey City than does another milquetoast highrise populated by yuppy types who can't afford Manhattan. To the impartial observer, the full weight of this bad decision will become clear once (i) the USD/EUR/GBP temporary currency imbalance inevitably corrects (this will happen in 6-12 months) causing a sudden drop-off in European demand for Manhattan real-estate as an investment vehicle (let's face it, the Europeans are mostly not planning to live there...sound at all like Miami?); (ii) the drop in foreign investment which is currently buoying Manhattan finally leads to a softening of the Manhattan market; (iii) the perceived correction in the Manhattan market shifts interest away from a significant fraction of folks who are currently flooding into JC for affordability reasons vis-a-vis Manhattan; (iv) JC sells itself short of it's intrinsic and cultural assets, thereby further devaluing it vs NYC, and a price correction vs NYC causes the recent flood of new residents into JC (1-2 yr lease?) to flood back across the Hudson. When this happens, given the huge and growing inventory in JC, it will lead to further downward price competition in the JC market which could cause the hive of highrises to turn into something reminiscent of urban decay (which is already evident everywhere else in JC). CONCLUSION: JC misses the ball once again and trades long-term viability for short-term gains, thinking "what can go wrong when you are right next door to Manhattan"? Isn't the failure of that argument self-evident in the history of JC?
I don't think cultural capital would have at all insulated Jersey City from the current downtown.
What I do think though is when the world economy rebounds, which it eventually will, oil consumption will rise again, and so will the price. That will make urban centers with mass transit highly desirable places to live, and exburbs out on the NJ/PA border undesirable.
The failure of Jersey City will be a failure to invest in infrastructure like subways and light rail lines. The federal government will at some point begin massive public works projects, most likely doling out money on a first come, first serve basis. Jersey City will almost certainly miss its opportunity to expand mass transit.
Eventually the global markets will reverse course, and as they do, unless a miracle of science frees us from an oil addiction, a growing economy will mean rising energy prices, in which case there will certainly be a massive shortage of urban housing.
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